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<h1 id="adr-014-learning-profiles-con-recency-bias"><a class="header" href="#adr-014-learning-profiles-con-recency-bias">ADR-014: Learning Profiles con Recency Bias</a></h1>
<p><strong>Status</strong>: Accepted | Implemented
<strong>Date</strong>: 2024-11-01
<strong>Deciders</strong>: Agent Architecture Team
<strong>Technical Story</strong>: Tracking per-task-type agent expertise with recency-weighted learning</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="decision"><a class="header" href="#decision">Decision</a></h2>
<p>Implementar <strong>Learning Profiles per-task-type con exponential recency bias</strong> para adaptar selección de agentes a capacidad actual.</p>
<hr />
<h2 id="rationale"><a class="header" href="#rationale">Rationale</a></h2>
<ol>
<li><strong>Recency Bias</strong>: Últimos 7 días pesados 3× más alto (agentes mejoran rápidamente)</li>
<li><strong>Per-Task-Type</strong>: Un perfil por tipo de tarea (architecture vs code gen vs review)</li>
<li><strong>Avoid Stale Data</strong>: No usar promedio histórico (puede estar desactualizado)</li>
<li><strong>Confidence Score</strong>: Requiere 20+ ejecuciones antes de confianza completa</li>
</ol>
<hr />
<h2 id="alternatives-considered"><a class="header" href="#alternatives-considered">Alternatives Considered</a></h2>
<h3 id="-simple-average-all-time"><a class="header" href="#-simple-average-all-time">❌ Simple Average (All-Time)</a></h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>Pros</strong>: Simple</li>
<li><strong>Cons</strong>: Histórico antiguo distorsiona, no adapta a mejoras actuales</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="-sliding-window-last-n-executions"><a class="header" href="#-sliding-window-last-n-executions">❌ Sliding Window (Last N Executions)</a></h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>Pros</strong>: More recent data</li>
<li><strong>Cons</strong>: Artificial cutoff, perder contexto histórico</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="-exponential-recency-bias-chosen"><a class="header" href="#-exponential-recency-bias-chosen">✅ Exponential Recency Bias (CHOSEN)</a></h3>
<ul>
<li>Pesa natural según antigüedad, mejor refleja capacidad actual</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="trade-offs"><a class="header" href="#trade-offs">Trade-offs</a></h2>
<p><strong>Pros</strong>:</p>
<ul>
<li>✅ Adapts to agent capability improvements quickly</li>
<li>✅ Exponential decay is mathematically sound</li>
<li>✅ 20+ execution confidence threshold prevents overfitting</li>
<li>✅ Per-task-type specialization</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Cons</strong>:</p>
<ul>
<li>⚠️ Cold-start: new agents start with low confidence</li>
<li>⚠️ Requires 20 executions to reach full confidence</li>
<li>⚠️ Storage overhead (per agent × per task type)</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="implementation"><a class="header" href="#implementation">Implementation</a></h2>
<p><strong>Learning Profile Model</strong>:</p>
<pre><pre class="playground"><code class="language-rust"><span class="boring">#![allow(unused)]
</span><span class="boring">fn main() {
</span>// crates/vapora-agents/src/learning_profile.rs
pub struct TaskTypeLearning {
pub agent_id: String,
pub task_type: String,
pub executions_total: u32,
pub executions_successful: u32,
pub avg_quality_score: f32,
pub avg_latency_ms: f32,
pub last_updated: DateTime&lt;Utc&gt;,
pub records: Vec&lt;ExecutionRecord&gt;, // Last 100 executions
}
impl TaskTypeLearning {
/// Recency weight formula: 3.0 * e^(-days_ago / 7.0) for recent
/// Then e^(-days_ago / 7.0) for older
pub fn compute_recency_weight(days_ago: f64) -&gt; f64 {
if days_ago &lt;= 7.0 {
3.0 * (-days_ago / 7.0).exp() // 3× weight for last week
} else {
(-days_ago / 7.0).exp() // Exponential decay after
}
}
/// Weighted expertise score (0.0 - 1.0)
pub fn expertise_score(&amp;self) -&gt; f32 {
if self.executions_total == 0 {
return 0.0;
}
let now = Utc::now();
let weighted_sum: f64 = self.records
.iter()
.map(|r| {
let days_ago = (now - r.timestamp).num_days() as f64;
let weight = Self::compute_recency_weight(days_ago);
(r.quality_score as f64) * weight
})
.sum();
let weight_sum: f64 = self.records
.iter()
.map(|r| {
let days_ago = (now - r.timestamp).num_days() as f64;
Self::compute_recency_weight(days_ago)
})
.sum();
(weighted_sum / weight_sum) as f32
}
/// Confidence score: min(1.0, executions / 20)
pub fn confidence(&amp;self) -&gt; f32 {
std::cmp::min(1.0, (self.executions_total as f32) / 20.0)
}
/// Final score combines expertise × confidence
pub fn score(&amp;self) -&gt; f32 {
self.expertise_score() * self.confidence()
}
}
<span class="boring">}</span></code></pre></pre>
<p><strong>Recording Execution</strong>:</p>
<pre><pre class="playground"><code class="language-rust"><span class="boring">#![allow(unused)]
</span><span class="boring">fn main() {
</span>pub async fn record_execution(
db: &amp;Surreal&lt;Ws&gt;,
agent_id: &amp;str,
task_type: &amp;str,
success: bool,
quality: f32,
) -&gt; Result&lt;()&gt; {
let record = ExecutionRecord {
agent_id: agent_id.to_string(),
task_type: task_type.to_string(),
success,
quality_score: quality,
timestamp: Utc::now(),
};
// Store in KG
db.create("executions").content(&amp;record).await?;
// Update learning profile
let profile = db.query(
"SELECT * FROM task_type_learning \
WHERE agent_id = $1 AND task_type = $2"
)
.bind((agent_id, task_type))
.await?;
// Update counters (incremental)
// If new profile, create with initial values
Ok(())
}
<span class="boring">}</span></code></pre></pre>
<p><strong>Agent Selection Using Profiles</strong>:</p>
<pre><pre class="playground"><code class="language-rust"><span class="boring">#![allow(unused)]
</span><span class="boring">fn main() {
</span>pub async fn select_agent_for_task(
db: &amp;Surreal&lt;Ws&gt;,
task_type: &amp;str,
) -&gt; Result&lt;AgentId&gt; {
let profiles = db.query(
"SELECT agent_id, expertise_score(), confidence(), score() \
FROM task_type_learning \
WHERE task_type = $1 \
ORDER BY score() DESC \
LIMIT 1"
)
.bind(task_type)
.await?;
let best_agent = profiles
.take::&lt;TaskTypeLearning&gt;(0)?
.ok_or(Error::NoAgentsAvailable)?;
Ok(best_agent.agent_id)
}
<span class="boring">}</span></code></pre></pre>
<p><strong>Scoring Formula</strong>:</p>
<pre><code>expertise_score = Σ(quality_score_i × recency_weight_i) / Σ(recency_weight_i)
recency_weight_i = {
3.0 × e^(-days_ago / 7.0) if days_ago ≤ 7 days (3× recent bias)
e^(-days_ago / 7.0) if days_ago &gt; 7 days (exponential decay)
}
confidence = min(1.0, total_executions / 20)
final_score = expertise_score × confidence
</code></pre>
<p><strong>Key Files</strong>:</p>
<ul>
<li><code>/crates/vapora-agents/src/learning_profile.rs</code> (profile computation)</li>
<li><code>/crates/vapora-agents/src/scoring.rs</code> (score calculations)</li>
<li><code>/crates/vapora-agents/src/selector.rs</code> (agent selection logic)</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="verification"><a class="header" href="#verification">Verification</a></h2>
<pre><code class="language-bash"># Test recency weight calculation
cargo test -p vapora-agents test_recency_weight
# Test expertise score with mixed recent/old executions
cargo test -p vapora-agents test_expertise_score
# Test confidence with &lt;20 and &gt;20 executions
cargo test -p vapora-agents test_confidence_score
# Integration: record executions and verify profile updates
cargo test -p vapora-agents test_profile_recording
# Integration: select best agent using profiles
cargo test -p vapora-agents test_agent_selection_by_profile
# Verify cold-start (new agent has low score)
cargo test -p vapora-agents test_cold_start_bias
</code></pre>
<p><strong>Expected Output</strong>:</p>
<ul>
<li>Recent executions (&lt; 7 days) weighted 3× higher</li>
<li>Older executions gradually decay exponentially</li>
<li>New agents (&lt; 20 executions) have lower confidence</li>
<li>Agents with 20+ executions reach full confidence</li>
<li>Best agent selected based on recency-weighted score</li>
<li>Profile updates recorded in KG</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="consequences"><a class="header" href="#consequences">Consequences</a></h2>
<h3 id="agent-dynamics"><a class="header" href="#agent-dynamics">Agent Dynamics</a></h3>
<ul>
<li>Agents that improve rapidly rise in selection order</li>
<li>Poor-performing agents decline even with historical success</li>
<li>Learning profiles encourage agent improvement (recent success rewarded)</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="data-management"><a class="header" href="#data-management">Data Management</a></h3>
<ul>
<li>One profile per agent × per task type</li>
<li>Last 100 executions per profile retained (rest in archive)</li>
<li>Storage: ~50KB per profile</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="monitoring"><a class="header" href="#monitoring">Monitoring</a></h3>
<ul>
<li>Track which agents are trending up/down</li>
<li>Identify agents with cold-start problem</li>
<li>Alert if all agents for task type below threshold</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="user-experience"><a class="header" href="#user-experience">User Experience</a></h3>
<ul>
<li>Best agents selected automatically</li>
<li>Selection adapts to agent improvements</li>
<li>Users see faster task completion over time</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h2 id="references"><a class="header" href="#references">References</a></h2>
<ul>
<li><code>/crates/vapora-agents/src/learning_profile.rs</code> (profile implementation)</li>
<li><code>/crates/vapora-agents/src/scoring.rs</code> (scoring logic)</li>
<li>ADR-013 (Knowledge Graph Temporal)</li>
<li>ADR-017 (Confidence Weighting)</li>
</ul>
<hr />
<p><strong>Related ADRs</strong>: ADR-013 (Knowledge Graph), ADR-017 (Confidence), ADR-018 (Load Balancing)</p>
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